Week 3

15th August 2016:

  • Juan Procaccini, president of the Argentina Agency for International Investment and Trade (AAICI), hopes that the Argentina Business & Investment Forum held in Buenos Aires on Sept. 12-14 and will see China become a strategic partner, with its technological capacity, its experience and financing. Procaccini said, “We have identified four major sectors in need of investment: energy, mining, infrastructure and agriculture.”
    • There has been much debate about the Western influence being applied to Macri. At his presidential inauguration he promised to end poverty, fight drug trafficking and unite Argentines which is the usual standard rhetoric for any incoming leader or any nation. Recent overtures with respect to both China and Russia suggest that perhaps Argentina might finally be wrestling free from the Western powers.
  • Donald Trump accused the national media on Sunday of not properly covering his campaign, which could have helped him to beat his rival Hillary Clinton by 20 percent adding that the US media were protecting Clinton and not showing crowds and rallies of the Republican candidate’s supporters.
    • Not only is there obvious media bias, but his own Republican Party are publicly disowning him and talking about supporting the democrats. Whatever our perception of Trump might be, it is clear he is not wanted in this presidential race by the usual suspects.
  • As Iran furthers its bid to attract billions of dollars of foreign investment to help rebuild its energy industry, apart from the purely economic importance, oil and gas exports have a strategic value through creating an “anti-American hydrocarbon consortium.”
    • There is no doubt that since the lifting of sanctions, Iran has turned towards the East and the New Silk Road initiative. This is seen not only in terms of domestic policy but also in relation to foreign policy in places like Syria. The desire for the US to seemingly wish to continue to isolate Iran has contributed to their anti-American stance.
  • The regulation of the banking system in the United Kingdom has gone too far while more focus should instead be placed on dealing with the issues that led to the 2008 global economic crisis, former Governor of the Bank of England Lord Mervyn King has stated.
    • Unfortunately there is far too much regulation which stifles productivity at the coal face end of operations which would benefit the people but equally there is a scandalous lack of regulation within the industry in terms of internal operations which has caused the global financial crisis.
  • Two Russian Beriev Be-200 multirole amphibious aircraft have landed in Portugal over the weekend to assist the country in fighting deadly forest fires, the Russian Emergencies Ministry said.
    • Russia continues to assist in global affairs wherever there is a need and nations ask for their assistance. Russia is the renaissance nation in the new paradigm
  • Turkey and a number of European countries are discussing ways to ease US economic sanctions against Sudan in order to open the country for investment, Turkish Ambassador to Sudan Cemalettin Aydin has said.
    • The backlash against the US continues, as nations come to realise how deeply damaging US policies have been across the globe, Africa being a great point in question.
  • The Brazilian Senate will hold the final vote in two weeks on whether suspended President Dilma Rousseff should be impeached according to Rousseff’s lawyer. A two-thirds majority will be needed for the Senate to impeach Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff.
    • There is no doubt that Rousseff’s impeachment process was a western driven agenda to oust there President who was not receptive to Western ideals and was rotating East via the BRICS alliance. It will be interesting to see the outcome of this vote but more importantly Brazil is an economic, social and political train wreck which needs addressing quickly.
  • Russia is seen as a potential mediator with regards to the dispute over islands in the South China Sea with countries unable to reach a political settlement engaged in a military build-up in the area. Russia, a partner to both China and Vietnam is seen as playing a key role in resolving the two countries’ dispute over the Spratlys.
    • Yet another example of Russian diplomacy holding sway in the world. In this case they are acting as mediators with China who are their natural ally and willing to accept Russian guidance in their external affairs.
  • Credit Suisse has reiterated its late-June outlook that gold will rise to $1,475 in the fourth quarter. The view was included in a research note citing highlights from the World Gold Council’s report this week on quarterly demand trends.
    • Credit Suisse’s analysis of the future Gold price is gaining a broader acceptance as the economic reality is becoming harder to hide despite the relentless march northwards of stock markets.
  • The IMF has indicated that the Chinese economy is expected to grow 6.6 per cent this year, with the inflation rate rising to 2 per cent, “We have a positive view of China’s growth outlook as China continues to mobilize its very considerable resources and catches up with higher-income economies.”
    • Despite the endless rhetoric coming out of the West about the slowing down of the Chinese economic and capital outflows, we can see that the reality is very different. We also need to factor into our understanding that China is transitioning its economic to reflect the new paradigm which is coming.
  • All of Ukraine’s major creditors, from the World Bank to the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development, the European Investment Bank, and Germany’s KfW Development Bank, are concerned about Kiev’s inability to successfully absorb the funds that have been allocated to the country.
    • Ukraine is the blueprint for what happens to a nation when a Western backed coup is implemented. They remove the leadership, put in their own puppet and then proceed to wreck the nation, economically, politically and socially. When you can throw in a civil war into the equation then all the better from their perspective. However when you have creditors voicing concerns which amount to them suggesting impropriety by a nation’s government, you know that they have utterly destroyed a nation.

16th August 2016:

  • Russia and the United States are close to starting joint military action against militants in the Syrian city of Aleppo, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stated. “We are now in a very active phase of negotiations with our American colleagues.”
    • Another example of a clear shift in US policy which perhaps suggests a change of order, to some extent, in Washington. However I do not share the view that Obama is no longer president and all associated rhetoric.
  • Prime Minister Theresa May is throwing the full weight of government behind her goal of winning the best Brexit deal for Britain but will not trigger the formal divorce procedure before the end of the year.
    • Endless media speculation that BREXIT will never happen as apparent deadline after deadline is not met. However there is little talk about the impending fate of the actual EU.
  • Wheat exports from Russia are expected to outpace the European Union this year, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which projects that Russia will become the world’s top exporter for the first time.
    • Russia continues to excel in food production and finds the export markets which work around the economic sanctions imposed upon them.
  • Japan’s economic growth ground to a halt in April-June as weak exports and shaky domestic demand prompted companies to cut spending, putting fresh pressure on premier Shinzo Abe to come up with policies that will produce more sustainable growth.
    • Japan is as clear proof as you will ever get that QE and ZIRP policy is doomed to failure.
  • French oil major Total has reportedly implemented mass layoffs in its Russia unit, according to an unnamed source cited by the Russian edition of Forbes. The company has reportedly dismissed 70 percent of staff at its Moscow office with compensation totalling two monthly salaries, the media reports, adding that 200 out of 600 employees lost their jobs with the rest shifted to the Russian state-run company Zarubezhneft.
    • Economic reality continues to bite on Western oil companies, despite attempts to pump oil above $50 a barrel.
  • The Russian economy is showing signs that it is recovering from its worst recession in 20 years, according to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development and the Russian Central Bank. Increasing business activity, as well as growing demand for electricity, railway traffic, and container transportation, indicates positive trends in the Russian economy.
    • Western media projections about Russia’s economy have proved to be little more than hot air. They assumed that sanctions would severely impact Russia but they failed to appreciate the innovative approach Russia applied to work around these sanctions and ironically the damage has been far greater to Europe as a consequence of this approach.
  • The Empire Fed business survey feel sharply back into contraction yesterday, (-4.21 versus the expectation of +2.0). The index is now at 3 month lows despite rises in the number of employees, average workweek, shipments, and new orders.
    • Clear evidence again of the manipulation of US economic data. Empire Fed business figures are a clear contradiction given the apparent aforementioned rises which should have produced the reverse effect on the data.
  • Jacob Rothschild’s investment house RIT Capital Partners has dumped assets priced in pounds this year as it nervously awaits the results of “the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world”.
    • Not only are the Rothschilds dumping stocks but they are also purchasing Gold.
  • New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs Murray McCully will visit Russia on August 16−18 at the invitation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The two foreign ministers will review the current state of bilateral relations and the prospects for further developing bilateral cooperation, and will exchange views on key issues in the Asia-Pacific region.
    • Another example of Russia taking the initiative in developing relations with cabal controlled nations. This is now becoming a dominant feature across the globe.
  • Joe Biden in Serbia for talks regarding recognition of Kosovo independence and NATO
    • Washington are desperate to retain a foothold in Serbia. Don’t be surprised to see Serbia merely pay lip service to the US.
  • Whilst the UK is facing a legal challenge over its continued arms sales to Saudi Arabia, senators in the US have proposed blocking the latest sale of weapons to Saudi suggesting a possible change in stance with regards to Western military support. Republican senator Rand Paul is considering blocking a recently approved US$1.15 billion deal for tanks, machine guns and other military equipment. “I will work with a bipartisan coalition to explore forcing a vote on blocking this sale,” he said in statement.
    • Saudi is coming under increasing pressure as West turns its back on an old ally who face a stark choice between oblivion or rotating east. The issue of were Saudi arms end up also needs addressing.
  • The value of negative-yielding bonds, both government and corporate, grew to $13.4 trillion this week from $13.1 trillion last week, as negative interest rates and central bank bond buying ripple through the debt market. Approximately one quarter of the global economy now has negative interest rates. It is clear that central banks are dominating markets.
    • Central bank intervention is propping up markets creating the illusion that all is well and meanwhile the implosion of the real economy continues unabated.
  • US and European officials have called their Ukrainian counterparts, reassuring them of support, but asking Kiev to avoid a further escalation of tensions with Moscow, following the discovery of a Ukrainian spy ring planning terror attacks in Crimea. Russian observers suggest the West may be looking for an exit from the Ukrainian debacle.
    • It now seems that Washington is looking to cut ties with Kiev. One suspects if that comes to pass then another coup is on the cards. The future of Donbass remains in the melting pot but perhaps we are more likely to see a resolution to the ongoing civil war as Ukrainian forces continue to shell civilian areas.
  • Last week marked the second anniversary of Russia’s introduction of agricultural sanctions against Europe. The measure, introduced in response to Western sanctions against Moscow over the crisis in Ukraine, led to tens of billions of euros in losses for producers. The counter-sanctions included meat and dairy products, fish, vegetables, fruits, and processed goods. Statistics show that the Baltic nations have been particularly hit hard.
    • Western nations continue to pay a big price over the imposition of sanctions against Russia. What these nations fail to realise is that Washington whilst pulling the strings does nothing to assist those nations as a result of their sanctions edict.
  • The big-four audit firm PwC is being sued for $5.5 billion over its failure to detect a fraud that resulted in a bank collapse during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. This is the biggest lawsuit in PwC history.
    • It seems incredible that it has taken over 7 years to reach this conclusion. There are far bigger fish to fry over this whole debacle.
  • The cost of renting in the British capital fell for the first time in nearly six years in July, with landlords flooding the market of rental housing, according to the UK’s largest real estate agency, Countrywide.
    • Nothing only is there a slowdown in the UK home buying market but now in the rental markets which is a clear sign of an economic slowdown.
  • Gazprom boosted natural gas exports to Western Europe by 14.2 percent year-on-year to 69.8 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2016.
    • European dependence on Russian gas supplies have never been greater.
  • Germany’s central bank is arguing that the country’s retirement age should ultimately be lifted another two years to 69. The government decided a decade ago to raise the retirement age from 65 to 67. The increase is being introduced gradually and will apply to all retirees by 2020
    • Another example of failed Western economic policy. What they fail to realise is that as economies deteriorate so will unemployment levels, which begs the question where exactly will these jobs exist to enable the churn rate in the workforce to decrease due to the rising retire age?

 17th August 2016:

  • Iran-backed Shiite fighters in Iraq now number up to 100,000 fighters, the first-known estimate of their size, according to the US military. Iran’s Syria-based commander has reported that it is preparing to retake the Iraqi city of Mosul.
  • Britain ignores its dependence on stronger allies and the dilapidated state of its “clapped out” armed forces in favour of a deluded 007 self-image, which came to the fore during the Brexit referendum, according to a leading scholar, Dr. Mike Finn.
  • The number of unemployed Britons fell by 52,000 to 1.64 million in July as the country’s labour market showed no signs of adverse effects from the vote to leave the European Union.
  • Twenty-one countries in Eastern and Central Europe want their citizens to return from abroad as emigration has led to a 7 percent drop in GDP. According to the IMF, the figure could grow to 9 percent if the trend continues.
  • The civil war in Yemen has cost the country $14 billion so far according to a confidential joint report by the World Bank, United Nations, Islamic Development Bank and European Union.
  • Technology that could someday transport people and goods at 1,200kph has expanded to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates.
  • UK inflation in July hit the highest level since November 2014, with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), the official inflation measure, rising to 0.6 percent from 0.5 percent in June, according to recent data from the Office for National Statistics.
  • A group linked to the billionaire Koch brothers is reportedly urging South Dakotans through an “aggressive” campaign to shield political donors from government scrutiny and discourage the use of public funds for political campaigns.
  • Domestic violence is described as being at “epidemic levels” in the UK with one in four women experiencing it at some point in their lives and three quarters of a million youngsters witnessing and experiencing some sort of domestic abuse in their life.
  • Iceland’s Pirate Party, which seeks to legalize drugs and give Edward Snowden asylum, looks to be the largest party in the country and hopes to form a government of its own in the upcoming election this autumn.
  • President Faustin Archange Touadera told Sputnik in an exclusive interview that the Central African Republic and Russia have a great potential for expanding on their partnership.
  • A top North Korean diplomat has abandoned his post in the UK seeking asylum in South Korea. This move comes as 13 other North Korean defectors have also been given permission to apply for asylum.

18th August 2016

  • Cooperation between Moscow and Tehran has been a “direct slap in the face” to the United States, the North Atlantic Alliance, as well as other countries and forces that are trying to destabilize Iran and Syria, political activist and journalist Navid Nasr.
    • Yet more challenges leading to the death of US hegemony.
  • Russia recognized the dangers posed by Turkish self-exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen long before Turkey did, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. “The danger, the threat which we did not see in the past, Russia recognized from the beginning. We thought that the followers of this movement are good citizens of the country, people of faith, but we could not even suspect that they are secret agents,” Cavusoglu said.
    • Precisely why Russia tipped off Erdogan about the attempted coup.
  • Nearly 20 Russian companies are planning to place bonds in the Chinese stock market via the China Chengxin credit rating agency. According to the chairman of the agency, Yan Yan, among the Russian companies interested in placing bonds in China are government institutions, financial institutions and industrial companies.
    • Further evidence of the economic recovery in Russia and how cooperation with China continues to grow.
  • ICANN informed the National Telecommunications & Information Administration NTIA that it had completed or will complete all the necessary tasks called for in the transition proposal of the World Wide Web. NTIA stated it had thoroughly reviewed the report and that based on that review it intends to allow the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority functions contract to expire as of October 1st. Upon this agreement being reached the United States is now in a position to privatise the governance of the World Wide Web in October.
    • Time will tell the real significance of this development but there is no doubt that it will usher in changes to the WWW.
  • Cisco Systems Inc announced that it will cut about 7 percent of its global workforce, laying off about 5,500 people during the first three months of the next year.
    • Corporations are not immune to the economic implosion caused by QE and ZIRP/NIRP policy.
  • In July, Iran exported 2.74 million barrels of crude oil and gas condensates per day according to Mohsen Qamsari, the International affairs director of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC).
    • The ramping of the crude oil price continues despite there being no production freeze in place and Iran continuing to ramp up production and selling it at significantly below the current crude price.
  • US President Barack Obama is facing a revolt from within his own party against his attempts to create the biggest regional free trade agreement in history: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
    • The TPP was never going to succeed and is not what much of the alternative media portrayed it to be. After all even Hilary Clinton is opposed to it.
  • Russia’s Technopromexport engineering company is ready to pay up to $26.4 million to a potential general designer of Iran’s thermal power plant on the Persian Gulf.
    • The Moscow – Tehran axis continues to take shape economically, politically and militarily.
  • Spain’s state debt reached €1.1 trillion ($1.24 trillion) in June, the highest level since 1909, according to the data released by the Bank of Spain.
    • Spain’s economic woes continue as they struggle to avoid paying EU fines for failing to meet ridiculously imposed targets at their debt to GDP ratio.
  • Japan posted a trade surplus of 513.5 billion yen ($5.1 billion) in July, though exports sank 14 percent from a year earlier as the yen surged against the dollar.
    • This surplus was caused by a 25 percent drop in imports suggesting further weakness in their economy. Both imports and exports fell by the highest monthly year-on-year drops since 2009, which is a telling statistic.
  • In the two years that Crimea has been under Western sanctions, numerous foreign vessels have entered the Russian peninsula’s ports, including vessels of EU members in apparent defiance of those sanctions.
    • There is the public face of Europe over EU sanctions but privately they are flouting them in clear defiance of Washington who were the instigators of such measures.
  • Retail sales in the UK rose by a stronger-than-expected 1.4 percent in July from a month earlier, against a projected increase of 0.2 percent, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
    • No Doubt as a result of Europeans and Americans taking advantage of the weak pound.
  • Sweden is moving to a six-hour working day in a bid to increase productivity and make people happier. Employers across the country have already made the change aiming to get more done in a shorter amount of time and ensure people had the energy to enjoy their private lives.
    • Much is said about Sweden but this is clear evidence of a break with the traditional cabal induced working week.
  • China has pledged to provide humanitarian assistance to the Syrian people as well as military support for the Syrian government troops in their fight to restore order.
    • China has largely played a covert role in Syria but is now publicly assisting Russia and Iran in Syria. Except to see more of this triumvirate in other Middle Eastern nations such as Iraq in the future.

 

19th and 20th August 2016:

  • Investments in Russia have grown for a second week in a row, reports Sberbank CIB, citing data from Emerging Portfolio Fund Research. In the week through August 17, capital inflow has more than doubled.
  • A former Deutsche Bank risk officer has refused his share of a $16.5 million award from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for reporting misdeeds. Eric Ben-Artzi accuses the SEC of not going after executives, but hitting lower-ranked employees.
  • The Dutch government is looking to introduce an innovative eco-friendly law, with the authorities debating an outright ban of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2025.
  • China Overseas Development Association’s Russian Center (CODARC) plans to open 300 stores for the sale of Russian products in China.
  • The free trade agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Vietnam will come into force on October 5, Trade Minister of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) Veronika Nikishina said.
  • The British government has announced plans to impose a sugar tax on soft drinks companies and invest the funds raised into health and sports projects for schoolchildren.
  • The government of Iceland has decided to lift most of the restrictions on currency movements introduced following the 2008 global financial crisis.
  • Ankara should implement Gazprom’s Turkish Stream pipeline as soon as possible, or face problems with natural gas supplies after 2019, according to Ali Şen, chairman of Bosphorus Gaz, a major importer from Russia.
  • The Russian centre for Syrian reconciliation at the Hmeimim airbase registered a total of seven violations of the ceasefire regime in Syria in the last 24 hours, the Russian Defence Ministry said.
  • A leaked document, from the massive 2,500 file dump by DC Leaks of George Soros’ most sensitive Open Society Foundations communications, show the inordinate amount of power and authority the Hungarian billionaire wielded over Ukraine in the immediate aftermath of the Maidan government overthrow.
  • Russia, Mongolia and China have inaugurated a new route for the passage of freight transit vehicles from the port of the Chinese city of Tianjin through the Mongolian capital of Ulan Bator to the main city of the Russian Republic of Buryatia, Ulan-Ude.
  • German businesses have been concerned about the impact of sanctions against themselves amid calls by the German Vice-Chancellor and Foreign Minister to roll back sanctions against Russia.
  • The economic outlook for Turkey has been revised to negative from stable amid the complicated political situation in the country following a recent coup attempt, the Fitch Ratings agency said.
  • Russia has proposed to set up a production line for India’s civil aviation sector. A Russian delegation headed by Alexander Potapov, Deputy Minister of Industry & Trade of the Russian Federation, put forward this proposal before Indian officials of the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion in New Delhi.
  • Japan’s central bank approved a 28 trillion-yen ($278 billion) package of measures to boost the country’s economy earlier in August. At the same time, the bank announced that a policy review would be conducted in September, sparking fears of a stimulus rollback.
  • In a race to catch up to China, India plans to further enlarge the scope of investment in the Russian commodity market to fuel its industries for coming decades. As part of this strategy and also because of favourable commodity prices, India has offered to jointly develop coal fields and mines in Russia.
  • The trade turnover between Russia and Germany could fall by almost $10 billion in 2016, trade representative of Russia in Germany in 2009-2015 Andrei Zverev said.
  • ECB policymakers acknowledged that economic “downside risks had clearly increased,” in minutes from a European Central Bank July meeting released on Thursday. It added that shaken investors acting more cautiously following the UK’s shock June referendum result, has resulted in “a significant decline in government bond yields.”
  • Dutch Party for Freedom Geert Wilders has called for a referendum on EU membership to be held in the Netherlands; the proposed vote has come to be known as Nexit. He added that the Netherlands will be able to improve relations with Russia only after it leaves the European Union, which will have an overall positive impact on the country’s future.
  • Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said that Russia could possibly use country’s southern Incirlik Air Base if it becomes necessary.